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thank you very much

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almost everybody knows that hiv

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is the virus that causes aids

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the results of hiv tests

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by hiv i mean whatever it is

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that hiv tests

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the results of those tests show

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that hiv varies with

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age sex race and geography

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in a completely regular way and no

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infectious disease does that

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moreover the numbers from

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hiv tests and the numbers

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of aids cases do not correlate

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geographically chronologically

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or in how they impact

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men and women or how they impact members

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of different races

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that's set out in this book which was

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published last year

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details of the book are at this website

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and additional commentary is on this

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i doubt that anyone can be convinced

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about what i've just said without going

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through all those data and this is a

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very

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time consuming business when i was

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gathering the data

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for months i could not believe

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what i was seeing and i couldn't

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disbelieve it

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and i simply doubt that anyone can

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take my word for it just because i say

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a few months ago i realized that data

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on deaths from hiv disease

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which is the new name for aids offer

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simple and conclusive proof

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that hiv is not the cause of aids

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here's the official hiv aids history

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aids was first recognized or defined in

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the early 1980s

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in 1984 hiv

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the human immune deficiency virus

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was pronounced the probable cause of

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aids

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infection with hiv is supposed to lead

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to

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illness after a latent period of about

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10 years

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and after aids has set in

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death followed within a couple of years

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in 1987 the first drug to treat aids was

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introduced

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azt that was supposed to perhaps

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double the life span after aids set in

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in 1990 azt started to be used

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to treat people who were not yet ill

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but who had tested positive for hiv

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and in the mid 1990s the

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now famous cocktail treatment of several

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drugs in combination

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were introduced it's usually called just

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heart for highly active antiretroviral

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treatment and it is said to extend

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the latent period before aids set

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in considerably and it's often

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spoken of now as

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extending the latent period so much

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that hiv aids is now not a fatal

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incurable illness but chronic but

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manageable

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in other words the time from infection

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to death

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has gone from maybe a dozen years in

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up to 1987 to 25 years

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or more nowadays

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so the ages at which people

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die from aids should have shifted

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to progressively later

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they haven't here's the age

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distribution of deaths from hiv disease

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1987 1990

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1995 2000

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2004

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the age at which most people who die

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from hiv

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disease die is around 40 years of age

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when you normalize these curves so that

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the peak is the same in all of them

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you can see even more clearly

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that there is no major shift in this

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curve

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it should have shifted by 10

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15 or 20 years since

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1987 it hasn't

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what has happened is there's been a

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change in skewness of the curve

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the explanation for that is neither

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simple nor

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obvious and i'll i'll talk about it

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interpretation

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if the ages at which people die

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has not changed then you might say well

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people were getting infected at younger

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and younger ages

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to exactly counterbalance the benefit

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from the drugs

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which is implausible in itself but

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beyond that when you look at the

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data just for hiv infections

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the peak age for testing hiv positive

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has been

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constant again with a maximum

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in the 30s or 40s from 1985 to

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date and the data for that is in my book

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so the most direct

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way of looking to see whether there's a

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latent period between hiv

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infection and aids and death

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is to compare the ages at which people

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get infected

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and the ages at which they die

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there is a very nice large data set

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for hiv infections centers for disease

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control

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published for 1995 to 1998

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results of testing in prisons hospitals

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tb clinics sexually disease

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clinics family planning prenatal clinics

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gay men drug abusers a total of about

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10 million tests so this was a pretty

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good

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the dark curve here shows

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the ages at which people tested hiv

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positive in those

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in that accumulated data set

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and this lighter one

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is the 2004 distribution

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of deaths from hiv disease

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and you can see that they just about

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superpose

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the data for those two things are given

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in 10-year intervals and they're not

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overlapping

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they're not identical 10-year

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intervals so that

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puts a little bit of uncertainty into

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how exactly

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those compare but beyond that

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not only should these two curves be

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shifted by

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10 years or more the infections

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were measured in 1995 to 1998

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at a time when these cocktail

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life-saving cocktails had already been

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introduced so

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the people who tested positive in 1995

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to 1998

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should not have been dying until

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25 2010

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2015 or so not

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at the same ages as where they were

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infected so here the hard questions

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for the mainstream point of view

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where is the latent period

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test any group for hiv

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and you find that they

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test positive most frequently

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in the late 30s and early 40s

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look at the national center for vital

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statistics

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data on deaths from hiv disease

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and year after year the ages at which

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people

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die most frequently from that are again

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in the late 30s and early 40s there is